Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 4.296078 5.106783 6.006652 7.076436 8.310258 9.685229 11.329971
2025-05-04 3.181462 4.296243 5.672691 7.481899 9.780110 12.583387 16.240379
2025-05-11 2.359632 3.563738 5.193693 7.525141 10.731174 14.935648 20.807054
2025-05-18 1.739108 2.908832 4.628697 7.278644 11.180116 16.619366 24.656776
2025-05-25 1.288179 2.370883 4.089182 6.921254 11.351868 17.868261 27.978062
2025-06-01 1.019207 2.045933 3.790782 6.842278 11.873725 19.619264 32.139453
2025-06-08 0.817093 1.781402 3.528997 6.757553 12.342031 21.299115 36.316301
2025-06-15 0.722530 1.690952 3.544435 7.129384 13.580498 24.280445 42.757997
2025-06-22 0.606292 1.527187 3.391218 7.168081 14.239046 26.363416 47.918292
2025-06-29 0.508447 1.376720 3.232561 7.164335 14.807082 28.327556 53.024696
2025-07-06 0.426746 1.240909 3.076039 7.134708 15.311756 30.210526 58.125744
2025-07-13 0.406230 1.247680 3.222427 7.733301 17.067011 34.448015 67.627528
2025-07-20 0.359646 1.179025 3.195822 7.980081 18.190147 37.686017 75.705965
2025-07-27 0.322341 1.125995 3.197064 8.290295 19.481916 41.360993 84.887078
2025-08-03 0.273874 1.026794 3.067859 8.288374 20.127425 43.863792 92.098395
2025-08-10 0.221124 0.896884 2.833595 8.003163 20.131467 45.111708 97.030588
2025-08-17 0.174267 0.768399 2.573392 7.608908 19.840639 45.732775 100.784578
2025-08-24 0.146063 0.693707 2.444871 7.521088 20.225644 47.753587 107.422633
2025-08-31 0.122411 0.626523 2.322676 7.428319 20.584148 49.741148 114.125285
2025-09-07 0.114535 0.619289 2.381557 7.832047 22.171543 54.465530 126.718122
2025-09-14 0.099357 0.575244 2.314220 7.873987 22.874899 57.318866 135.606669
2025-09-21 0.085453 0.530786 2.235299 7.869886 23.460990 59.955192 144.206763
2025-09-28 0.073105 0.487902 2.151555 7.837697 23.970082 62.454246 152.670924